The number one responsibility in the upcoming turmoil that is Peak Oil is the protection of your nest egg. As real incomes shrink, there will be less discretionary spending. We want exposure to sectors that will begin to become a larger % of household spending. Consumer Staples/Defensive fits this bill perfectly for me. The thesis really is as simple as people will still wash their clothes and take showers in an economic depression.
Additionally, I believe as constituents broadly become poorer, politicians will raise taxes everywhere they can for redistributive purposes. I’m thinking permanent UBI undercover as Covid-19 stimulus type programs. As a hedge against these taxes and to get ahead of direct UBI spending I’m allocating a larger percent of my portfolio to Consumer Staples.
Addendum: I like to put this sector into as many different tax advantaged accounts as possible. There’s no guarantee these accounts won’t be raided later with emergency measures. But a 1-off 2% tax on 401ks to pay for a UBI might exclude HSAs.